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Trumbull, CT 06611, USA

After looking at this year’s weigh-off results, I immediately noticed almost all of the pumpkins over 2,000 pounds went heavy. After thinking about how this could be possible, a few thoughts came to mind. Are these giants getting so big, that it is becoming more and more difficult to measure? Or, do we need to start thinking about adjusting the estimated weight chart? Or is this just an anomaly?

I would love to hear opinions.

Data below:
- 69 pumpkins weighed over 2,000 pounds
- 65 out of the 69 pumpkins went heavy to the chart
- Average % heavy to chart was ~7.6% (that seems crazy)
- Highest % heavy was 26%
- Average estimated weight was 2,086
- Average actual weight was 2,238

10/20/2024 8:51:03 PM

Merrimack NH

When virtually every pumpkin goes "over the chart", it's probably time to adjust the chart. Most weigh-offs have a crew that measure the pumpkins, so it seems unlikely it would be a result of inaccurate measurements.

[Last edit: 10/21/24 8:41:56 AM]

10/21/2024 8:41:33 AM

Westmoreland, KS

So taking the top 69 pumpkins is such a small snapshot you are talking about the best of the best the ones that have everything dialed in. Doing that is not great because the pumpkins in that 500-1500 pound range will probably get screwed over...nobody enjoys seeing their pumpkins go way way light.

10/21/2024 9:15:15 AM

Westmoreland, KS

looking at every pumpkin that was officially weighed this year the percent heavy/light was 2.44% seems pretty accurate to me

10/21/2024 9:15:56 AM

Grittyville, WA

Those over 480 were 5.7 hvy
470 to 480 5.5 % hvy
460 to 470 5.1 % hvy
450 to 460 < 4.0% hvy

Do the math starting with the OTT's. If you start with the weight it will cause a mathematical bias.

[Last edit: 10/21/24 9:48:18 AM]

10/21/2024 9:35:54 AM

Grittyville, WA

Maybe I should say a statistical bias... anyhow thanks for the mental exercise!!!

To recap: If you group the OTT's together then run the stats on each group (as above) the inaccuracy of the chart will be reduced... it will remove the anomaly you get when you only look at the heaviest pumpkins.

The chart is inaccurate, but the way Im doing the math, its under 6%... (whether this is accurate enough can be a subject of one's opinion.)

The math is tricky. I think you must analyze the data based on the OTTs, not the pumpkin rank, if you want to correctly judge the accuracy of the chart.

[Last edit: 10/21/24 10:06:43 AM]

10/21/2024 9:47:10 AM

Nova Scotia

That's why there at the top of course, the lucky ones to make it until the end and fortunate to go heavy and some with shocking weights! Due to many factors such as genetics, growing methods/conditions and good ole Lady Luck. Stelts are definitely dialed in. We had a shocker here that we weighed before many others going well over 200 lbs for its size. While others not so fortunate much bigger in size yet not as dense. And this has been going on forever, I remember Dad back in 1999 had a beast, measuring over 1,000 lbs easy and went 875??? Basically a balloon. Yes disappointing. We still stick with one of the older measuring charts from about 25 years ago to be on the safer side. But that's why we have official weigh offs and the suspense waiting to see the final tally.

10/21/2024 9:48:20 AM

Merrimack NH

I didn't mean to imply the chart was off for all pumpkins, the initial post was referring to pumpkins over 2,000 mostly all going over the chart. Seems an argument could be made that the current chart underestimates the weight of the biggest pumpkins, maybe just because their still hasn't been a large enough sample size as Jake points out.

10/21/2024 11:25:18 AM

Wallingford,CT

Ray, First let me say Congrats on your 2014.5 pumpkin at Durham this year, well done.

(I'm over the character limit so I split this post)

10/21/2024 11:26:05 AM

Wallingford,CT

In a perfect world you would expect there to be a 50/50 split between heavy or light to the chart with the smaller the errors the better. As others have noted it’s risky to draw a conclusion from only a limited subset of data but I thought I would look to see how your numbers compare to ones I get when using the now old Team-Pumpkin Chart. The over under split is 68%/32% for Team-Pumpkin vs 94%/6% for the GPC chart. You should note I made the Team-Pumpkin Chart using all available pumpkin data through 2012 when I think the largest OTT was 458 inches. I did extrapolate my chart to include estimates for pumpkins larger than 458 but cautioned using the extrapolated estimates. In your set of 69 pumpkins only 19 are 458 or less OTT but I looked at all 69 anyway.

Data below using Team-Pumpkin:
- 69 pumpkins weighed over 2,000 pounds
- 47 (compared to 65)out of the 69 pumpkins went heavy to the chart
- Average % heavy to chart was ~3.8% (compared to ~7.6%)
- Highest % heavy was 22% (compared to 26%)
- Average estimated weight was 2,167 (compared to 2,086)
- Average actual weight was 2,238

I have always said the GPC chart was based on flawed assumptions and biased towards making the larger pumpkins ‘heavy to the chart’. Even now 12 years later the Team-Pumpkin Chart continues to make better predictions than the one being used. I won’t list the names of well-known and respected top growers that have personally told me they use my chart in preference to the GPC chart, you would be surprised.

I made my chart in 2012 because the GPC chart was terrible and needed updating. The GPC followed with an updated chart that still wasn’t as good as mine. Since then they have made improvements to their chart so now it’s much better and not much different than the one I made in 2012. Still the Team-Pumpkin chart is marginally better.

Over the years I’ve considered updating my chart using the newer data but it seems it

10/21/2024 11:27:27 AM

Wallingford,CT

seems it’s still good enough
Bart

10/21/2024 11:28:23 AM

Nova Scotia

Also total inches sometimes can be deceiving. For instance usually those pumpkins with a big front stem end(which is the thickest section of a AG) and are full and blocky are on or above chart. Compared to the oblong low wide long ones with a huge circumference. But that's the pumpkin everyone is unique in its own way.

10/21/2024 12:20:14 PM

Nova Scotia

Also check out some featherweights such as Jerry Rose had one measuring estimate 2,050 lbs. and weighed 1,885 lbs.! So still quite a disparity with some going either 200 lbs. one way or the other unfortunately.

10/21/2024 12:58:05 PM

Australia eastcoastcitrus@hotmail.com

Dap averaged over over all pumpkins would be interesting the over 2000s would I imagine be 100 days or more as McMillan showed when he grew on scales it changes a lot of smaller ones may be a lot less days

10/21/2024 3:30:40 PM

Brooktondale, New York

How many of the top pumpkins had 1885.5 or 2365 genetics within the last two generations? Is the heavy trend equally distributed throughout all seed lines? Or does the percent heavy fall in line with historical trends for those seeds?

[Last edit: 10/21/24 7:22:54 PM]

10/21/2024 5:26:57 PM

Ontario

The charts were never meant to be perfect, just to give us all a measurement to compare how "dense" the fruits are. Does it really matter that much if we are all 20% heavy? As long as we can see that "oh that one was only 10%, but that one was 35%" the numbers we get are arbitrary, they just show us a weight-inches comparison. I mean yeah it would be great to just know 100% of the time what weight my fruit is on the vine, but it really doesn't matter. It shows us how fast we're growing, and how dense the fruit is, so I think it's probably fine. I mean if someone was willing to redo them all that would be great, but does it really matter?

10/25/2024 8:20:37 PM

Southwest Pennsylvania

Where does one find the Team Pumpkin chart if it's still publicly available?

10/25/2024 9:10:57 PM

Wallingford,CT

The links are here on BP but it seems the target of the link has been removed. I could email the chart to you if I had an email address to send it to..........
Bart

10/25/2024 10:36:05 PM

Syracuse, NY

In the end, it is great to have a chart to compare the measurements to and have an idea of how much a fruit weighs, regardless of how accurate it is, within one's own reason. Else, we're a cop with no radar gun. Thanks to all whom have striven to put it in our hands as growers of AGs and such. eg

10/25/2024 10:57:44 PM

Nova Scotia

We all like to know a "general" weight of our pumpkins, but the suspense and excitement of having them finally officially weighed is the best part after a long season. Some of us are fortunate to have our own scales yet we still do not weigh our entries before the weigh off. My father was one of the first to utilize a cloth measuring tape for his ATLANTIC GIANTS, it was a livestock tape he had used for years buying beef cattle in the day estimating their weight and then offer a price which was tricky as well when your livelihood depended upon it!

10/26/2024 7:16:53 AM

Wallingford,CT

while the Team-Pumpkin chart may have been deleted from BP it can still be found at the way back machine

http://web.archive.org/web/20131102065127/http://www.bigpumpkins.com/Attachments/Team-Pumpkin_2013_Enhanced_OTT_Chart.pdf

yes it's a long link but it will get you to a page where you can read my original post here on BP and download the pdf file with the charts
Bart

[Last edit: 10/26/24 1:21:50 PM]

10/26/2024 1:19:59 PM

Anchorage Alaska

you know Bart , I think I laminated that chart and still have it , I haven't used it lately because of its issue date, but I will take another look

10/27/2024 12:58:47 AM

Syracuse, NY

Quickly triple-left-click, right click that and left-click 'Go to...' A real time-(lol)-saver. eg

10/27/2024 5:14:48 AM